WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

An indicative estimate of the probability of death, critical illness or total disability before you reach retirement. Supported for ages 25 to 60.

YOUR DETAILS

The tables behind this tool cover ages 25 to 60. Outside that range the tool will not produce a number rather than extrapolate one.

Retirement age cannot be set at or below your current age, because there would be no period left to measure.

YOUR RISK BEFORE AGE 65

Indicative estimates, updating live as you adjust your details above.

DEATH

1 in 8

12.0%

CRITICAL ILLNESS

1 in 4

24.0%

DISABILITY

1 in 15

6.5%

COMBINED

1 in 3

indicative chance at least one will happen before age 65

37.5% probability, over 30 years

How these numbers are worked out

• Three tables, one each for death, critical illness and total disability, hold the chance of that event before age 65 by age and gender in five-year steps from 25 to 60. Ages between the steps are interpolated in a straight line.
• Smoking multiplies the death figure by 2.0 and the critical illness figure by 1.5. The disability figure is left alone.
• A retirement age other than 65 is applied by compounding the probability over the years you are actually exposed, using 1 − (1 − p) raised to the ratio of years, rather than pro-rating it.
• The combined figure is 1 minus the product of the three complements, which assumes the events are independent and therefore slightly overstates the true chance.
• Outside ages 25 to 60, and where the retirement age is not later than the current age, the tool shows an explanation instead of a number. It previously clamped to the nearest table row, which overstated one-year risk close to retirement by roughly six times, and it previously displayed “1 in 999” when there was no period left to measure.

Source and status: these three tables are indicative planning figures held in the tool. They are not attributed to a published New Zealand data source and have not been reviewed by an actuary, so treat the output as directional. The New Zealand reference for the mortality component is the Stats NZ period life tables. There is no equivalent public New Zealand basis for critical illness or total disability incidence.

Limitations: these are population-level figures for a group sharing your age, gender and smoker status. Family history, occupation, existing conditions, weight, alcohol use and where you live all move individual risk substantially and none of them are inputs here.

WHAT ACC DOESN'T COVER

ACC only covers injuries caused by accidents. It does not cover illness, disease, or medical conditions, which account for the majority of critical illness and disability claims in New Zealand.

If you were diagnosed with cancer, had a heart attack, or developed a degenerative condition, ACC would not provide income support or lump-sum payments. Personal insurance is designed to fill this gap.

Even for accident-related claims, ACC weekly compensation is capped at 80% of your income (up to a maximum). Many New Zealanders find this falls short of their actual living costs, especially when combined with mortgage repayments.

Have this reviewed by an adviser

A licensed New Zealand financial adviser will look at your actual health, occupation and family history, which this tool cannot. No obligation, and no quote is generated here.

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RELATED CALCULATORS

Disclaimer: This calculator provides general information only and does not constitute personalised financial advice. The probabilities shown are indicative planning figures at a population level, are not attributed to a published New Zealand source, and have not been reviewed by an actuary. They may not reflect your individual health, lifestyle, occupation or family history, and actual risk varies significantly between individuals. Smoker multipliers are simplified estimates. Always consult a licensed financial adviser for advice tailored to your personal circumstances before making insurance decisions.

Licensed Financial Advice Provider · FSP 712931

How the risk probability calculator works

This tool estimates the chance that a specific event, death, a critical illness, or a disability serious enough to stop you working permanently, happens to you before you reach the retirement age you choose. It reads three indicative planning tables by age and gender, applies a smoker adjustment, rescales the result to your retirement age, and shows each probability as a percentage, as a one-in-X figure, and as a grid of 100 dots. It supports ages 25 to 60, and refuses to produce a number outside that range.

What the three probabilities mean

Each figure is the chance of that event occurring at least once between your current age and retirement, not an annual risk. A 35-year-old non-smoking male in the tool carries roughly a 12% chance of death, a 24% chance of a critical illness and a 6.5% chance of total disability before 65; for a 35-year-old female the same tables give about 7%, 19% and 5%. Critical illness is consistently the largest of the three, and by a wide margin.

• The dot grid is the same number expressed as people: 24 highlighted dots out of 100 means roughly 24 people in a comparable group.
• The one-in-X figure is simply the reciprocal, rounded, a 24% probability becomes about one in four.
• The three events are not mutually exclusive. Someone can experience a critical illness and later a disability, which is why the combined figure is calculated separately.

Why critical illness dominates the result

For everyone under about 55 the critical illness probability in these tables is roughly double the death probability, because modern treatment means people survive the events that would once have killed them. That survival is precisely what creates a financial problem: a household that loses its earner to death faces one set of costs, while a household whose earner survives cancer faces treatment costs, reduced earnings and a mortgage that keeps running, often for years.

How smoking and retirement age change the numbers

Two adjustments move the result. Smoking doubles the death probability and multiplies the critical illness probability by 1.5, with the disability figure left unchanged. Changing the retirement age rescales every probability across the number of years you are actually exposed, using a compounding adjustment rather than a straight-line one, so retiring at 70 raises your figures and retiring at 60 lowers them.

• The smoker multipliers are simplified planning factors, not an insurer's rating table. Real underwriting distinguishes between quantity, duration and time since quitting.
• The combined probability assumes the three events are statistically independent, which slightly overstates the true figure because the risk factors overlap.
• All probabilities are capped at 99%.

What the probabilities do and do not tell you

These are population-level probabilities, so they describe a group of people who share your age, gender and smoker status, not you specifically. Family history, existing conditions, occupation, body weight, alcohol use and where you live all move individual risk substantially and none of them are inputs here. Use the output to judge whether an event is likely enough to plan for, then let an underwriter price your actual risk.

The assumptions behind the numbers

The tables in this tool are indicative planning estimates held in the code. They are not attributed to a published New Zealand data source and have not been reviewed by an actuary, so treat the outputs as directional rather than authoritative. The New Zealand reference for the mortality component is the Stats NZ period life tables; there is no equivalent public New Zealand basis for critical illness or total disability incidence.

• Base probabilities are read from three tables covering ages 25 to 60 in five-year steps, by gender, expressed as the chance of the event before age 65.
• Ages between table points are linearly interpolated. Outside 25 to 60 the tool shows an explanation instead of a number, because extending the tables would mean inventing figures.
• Until August 2026 ages above 60 were clamped to the age-60 row, so a 64-year-old man was shown a 4% chance of death over a single remaining year, roughly six times the one-year mortality the Stats NZ life tables imply at that age. Anyone who used the tool near the top of its range before then saw a materially overstated figure.
• A retirement age at or below your current age leaves no period to measure. The tool now says so; it used to display "1 in 999", which looked like an answer.
• Smoker status multiplies the death probability by 2.0 and the critical illness probability by 1.5, and leaves disability unchanged.
• A retirement age other than 65 is applied by rescaling the probability over the years remaining, using the formula 1 minus (1 minus p) raised to the power of the ratio of years.
• The combined probability is 1 minus the product of the three complements, which assumes the events are independent.
• Every probability is capped at 99%.
• No family history, occupation, existing medical condition, weight, alcohol use or regional factor is taken into account.

Common questions

What are my chances of a critical illness before 65 in New Zealand?

On the indicative tables in this tool, a 35-year-old non-smoking male sits at roughly 24% and a 35-year-old female at roughly 19%, before any smoker adjustment. That makes critical illness around twice as likely as death for the same person over the same period, which is why trauma cover is often the first product an adviser sizes for a young family.

How much does smoking change my risk?

This tool doubles the death probability for smokers and multiplies the critical illness probability by 1.5. A 35-year-old male non-smoker at 12% death risk before 65 therefore moves to about 24% as a smoker. Insurers apply their own smoker loadings to premiums, typically for at least twelve months after the last cigarette, and they are usually substantial.

Why is the disability probability lower than the illness probability?

The disability table in this tool measures total and permanent inability to work, which is a far higher bar than being diagnosed with a listed critical illness. Most people who have a heart attack or are treated for cancer eventually return to work, so they would claim on trauma cover but not on a total permanent disability policy. The two products answer different questions.

Are these probabilities specific to me?

No. They describe a population group sharing your age, gender and smoker status, and they exclude family history, occupation, existing conditions and lifestyle factors beyond smoking. Your individual risk could be materially higher or lower. Use the tool to decide whether an event is worth insuring against, and let an underwriter assess your actual profile.

Sources

• Stats NZ, National and subnational period life tables: 2022–2024: life expectancy at birth of 80.1 years for males and 83.5 years for females (retrieved 18 August 2026).
• ACC, Calculating weekly compensation for employees: “ACC usually pays up to 80% of the income you earned before your injury”, before tax and deductions (retrieved 18 August 2026).
• ACC, Injuries we don’t cover: illness, sickness and conditions related to ageing sit outside the scheme (retrieved 18 August 2026).

Related calculators

• Trauma insurance calculator

  , turns the critical illness probability into a dollar figure.
• TPD calculator, sizes cover for the disability outcome on this page.
• ACC gap calculator, shows why illness and injury produce completely different outcomes in New Zealand.

Have these numbers reviewed by a licensed adviser · free, no obligation.

Explore related pages: Life Insurance, Income Protection, Health Insurance, Trauma Insurance, For Brokers.