ACC's 2029/30 target requires about 11,000 people a year to leave long-term cover

Source: ACC, Turnaround Plan 2026/27

ACC wants its long-term claims pool below 20,000 by 2029/30. Working that back through ACC's own exit and entry numbers, it means moving roughly 3,000 more people a year off weekly compensation than ACC managed in 2024/25.

By Henry Smith · ACC · 2026-07-30

ACC has to move about 11,000 people a year off long-term weekly compensation to hit its own 2029/30 target, roughly 3,000 more than the nearly 8,000 it managed in 2024/25. That is a lift of around 38%, sustained for four consecutive years.

What ACC actually published

ACC released its Turnaround Plan 2026/27 on 29 July 2026. The newsroom story announcing it carries quotes from Board Chair Jan Dawson and Chief Executive Megan Main but no figures at all (ACC, retrieved 20 August 2026). The numbers are in the plan itself, a 19 page PDF linked from that page, which we read in full.

The plan reports that the long-term claims pool, which ACC defines as the number of clients still receiving weekly compensation more than 365 days after injury, is now 24,454, down from a projected 26,180. It sets a 2026/27 target of 23,000 to 23,500 and a 2029/30 target of below 20,000. It introduces a second measure for the first time, the pool excluding sensitive claims, with a 2026/27 target of 20,350 to 20,850. It also states that 92% of clients are no longer receiving income support from ACC one year after their injury, and that spending on rehabilitation and treatment support has risen from $2.3b to $5.0b over ten years, "well above demand, population and inflation growth" (ACC, Turnaround Plan 2026/27, retrieved 20 August 2026).

The scheme-level financial figures reported alongside the plan by the trade press are not in the plan. They are in ACC's Annual Report 2025, which we also read: the Outstanding Claims Liability rose $3.3 billion in 2024/25 to $63.6 billion, against an Investment Fund of $51.1 billion, and ACC recorded a net deficit of $1.5 billion (ACC, Annual Report 2025, retrieved 20 August 2026). Insurance Business NZ reported the same figures on 30 July 2026 (Insurance Business NZ, retrieved 20 August 2026).

How many people have to leave the pool each year?

This is our calculation, from ACC's published figures. ACC has not done it.

Start with the pool history. ACC's Annual Report 2025 gives the number of clients receiving weekly compensation for more than 365 days as at 30 June for four years, and the Turnaround Plan gives the provisional 2025/26 figure.

Year to 30 June	Long-term claims pool	Status
2021/22	18,959	Reported
2022/23	19,993	Reported
2023/24	22,593	Reported
2024/25	24,549	Reported
2025/26	24,454	Provisional
2026/27	23,000 to 23,500	Target
2029/30	Below 20,000	Target

Sources: ACC Annual Report 2025 for 2021/22 to 2024/25, ACC Turnaround Plan 2026/27 for 2025/26 and the targets, both retrieved 20 August 2026.

Now the flow. In 2024/25 the pool grew by 1,956, from 22,593 to 24,549. In the same year ACC says it helped "nearly 8,000 clients return to work or independence after more than a year on weekly compensation". If those 8,000 were the year's exits, then roughly 9,956 people crossed the 365 day line and entered the pool.

To get from 24,454 to below 20,000 by 30 June 2030, the pool has to fall by at least 4,455 across four years, an average of about 1,114 a year. Hold entries at 9,956 and exits have to average about 11,070 a year. That is roughly 3,070 more exits than 2024/25, a lift of about 38%, every year, for four years.

The near-term target says the same thing. Falling from 24,454 to the midpoint of the 2026/27 range, 23,250, is a drop of 1,204 in a single year, which needs about 11,160 exits. Note also what that target is in historical terms: ACC's pool grew 8.9%, 5.5%, 13.0% and 8.7% in the four years to 2024/25, then held roughly flat at minus 0.4% in 2025/26. The 2026/27 target is the first material fall ACC has ever set for this measure.

Could private income protection absorb those exits?

No, and the scale gap is the reason. ACC paid $2,855 million of weekly compensation in 2024/25 (ACC, Annual Report 2025, retrieved 20 August 2026). The entire New Zealand private income protection market collected $539 million of annual premium in the year to 31 March 2026, on Financial Services Council figures (FSC, retrieved 20 August 2026).

ACC's income replacement outlay is 5.3 times the whole private income protection premium pool, before a cent of that premium goes to claims, reserves, commission or expenses. Private cover is not sized to backfill ACC at scale, and it was never designed to. What it can do is sit behind an individual, which is a different question from whether it can absorb a policy target.

What this means if you are on ACC now

An exit from the long-term claims pool is not the same thing as a recovery. ACC can stop weekly compensation because you have recovered, because it assesses you as fit for suitable work whether or not that work exists, because your vocational independence assessment goes against you, or because you reach the age at which weekly compensation ends. If ACC is under target pressure to lift exits by around 38%, the assessment and review pathways are where that pressure lands.

Two things follow. If you are receiving weekly compensation, the specific ground on which ACC could stop it matters more than the general rule, and it is set out in our guide to how long ACC cover lasts. If you are already in a review, the sequence and deadlines are in when ACC payments stop.

If you hold private income protection alongside ACC, check the offset clause rather than the benefit amount. Most New Zealand income protection is written to offset ACC weekly compensation, so the practical question when ACC stops is whether your policy's own disability definition is still met, which is a separate test from ACC's.

The honest limits of this calculation

The 38% figure rests on one assumption we cannot verify: that ACC's "nearly 8,000" clients returning to work or independence represents all exits from the pool in 2024/25. People also leave the pool by dying, by reaching New Zealand Superannuation age, or by moving to other entitlements. If those routes are material, total exits in 2024/25 were higher than 8,000, entries were correspondingly higher than 9,956, and the required lift in the exit rate is smaller than 38% while the absolute number of people leaving each year is larger.

We have also assumed entries stay flat. ACC does not publish an entry forecast for the pool, and its own plan is partly aimed at reducing entries rather than lifting exits. Every entry ACC prevents is one fewer exit it needs. If entries fall by 10%, the required exits drop to about 10,075 a year, a lift of about 26% rather than 38%.

Two dating issues are worth naming. The pool figures for 2021/22 to 2024/25 are audited year-end figures. The 24,454 is described in the plan as provisional, subject to final claims liability valuation and external audit. And the Outstanding Claims Liability and Investment Fund figures are 2024/25, a year older than the plan they were reported alongside.

Finally, ACC serves a bot challenge to some automated requests. In this case both the newsroom page and the plan PDF were readable to us and we quote from them directly. Nothing on this page is taken from a secondary outlet's summary of a figure we could not reach ourselves.

Sources

All QuoteHub insurance news

Talk to a licensed adviser about what this means for you · free, no obligation.