Report

ACC's new target needs 3,000 more people a year off weekly payments

Source: ACC, Turnaround Plan 2026/27

Payments can stop on a decision that you are fit for suitable work, whether or not that work exists. ACC's own figures show its 2029/30 target needs about 11,000 people a year to leave long-term cover, roughly 38% more than 2024/25 managed.

By Henry Smith · ACC · 2026-07-30

What this means for you Anyone still on ACC weekly compensation more than a year after an injury sits in the pool ACC has set a target to shrink from 24,454 to below 20,000 by 2029/30, and those payments can end on an assessment that someone is fit for suitable work rather than on a recovery. Most New Zealand income protection policies subtract whatever ACC pays and top up the rest, so when ACC stops, whether the private cover starts paying turns on the insurer's own definition of disability. That is a separate test, in different words, from the one ACC applies.

Written by Henry Smith · Reviewed by Smiths Insurance & KiwiSaver, licensed Financial Advice Provider (FSP712931)

If an injury has kept you off work for more than a year, ACC can stop your weekly payments without you having recovered. One of the grounds it can use is a decision that you are fit for suitable work, whether or not that work actually exists.

ACC has now set a target that puts more weight on decisions like that one. It wants fewer than 20,000 people on long-term weekly compensation by 2029/30, down from 24,454 today. Work that back through ACC's own figures for who joins that group and who leaves it, and the target needs about 11,000 people a year to come off the payments. In 2024/25, nearly 8,000 did. That is roughly 3,000 more people a year, a lift of about 38%, for four years running.

What this means if you are on ACC now

Weekly compensation is the income ACC pays when an injury stops you working. Coming off it is not the same thing as getting better. ACC can stop those payments for any of these reasons:

you have recovered
ACC decides you are fit for suitable work, whether or not that work exists
you do not pass a vocational independence assessment, which is ACC's formal test of whether you could go back to work
you reach the age at which weekly compensation ends

Only the first of those is a recovery. The rest are decisions. If ACC has to move 38% more people off payments every year for four years, assessments and reviews are where that pressure lands, which makes the particular ground ACC uses to stop someone's payments matter more than the general rule.

Where that number comes from

ACC released its Turnaround Plan 2026/27 on 29 July 2026. The newsroom story announcing it quotes Board Chair Jan Dawson and Chief Executive Megan Main, and contains no figures at all (ACC). The numbers sit in the plan itself, a 19 page PDF linked from that page. We read all of it.

The plan turns on a single measure: the long-term claims pool, ACC's name for everyone still getting weekly compensation more than a year, or 365 days, after their injury. It holds 24,454 people, where ACC had expected 26,180. ACC sets two targets for it, 23,000 to 23,500 by 2026/27, then below 20,000 by 2029/30 (ACC, Turnaround Plan 2026/27).

Most people never come near that pool. The same plan says 92% of clients are off income support within a year of their injury. It also says spending on rehabilitation and treatment support has more than doubled in ten years, from $2.3b to $5.0b, growth ACC calls "well above demand, population and inflation growth".

The very large dollar figures that ran in news coverage are not in the plan at all. They come from ACC's Annual Report 2025, which we also read: an outstanding claims liability of $63.6 billion, meaning everything ACC expects to pay over the whole life of claims it has already accepted, against an investment fund of $51.1 billion, and a year in which ACC's costs ran $1.5 billion ahead of its income (ACC, Annual Report 2025). That gap is why the plan exists.

How many people have to leave each year?

What follows is our arithmetic, built on ACC's own published figures. ACC has not published this sum itself.

Year to 30 June	Long-term claims pool	Status
2021/22	18,959	Reported
2022/23	19,993	Reported
2023/24	22,593	Reported
2024/25	24,549	Reported
2025/26	24,454	Provisional
2026/27	23,000 to 23,500	Target
2029/30	Below 20,000	Target

Sources: the same annual report for 2021/22 to 2024/25; the turnaround plan cited above for 2025/26 and the targets.

Picture the pool as a bath, with people flowing in at one end and out at the other. In 2024/25 the level rose by 1,956 people. In the same year ACC says it helped "nearly 8,000 clients return to work or independence after more than a year on weekly compensation". So if 8,000 left and the pool still grew by 1,956, about 9,956 people must have flowed in. Hold that inflow steady and the rest is simple.

The exit maths	People
Pool at 30 June 2026 (provisional)	24,454
Where it must be by 30 June 2030	Below 20,000
Fall needed over four years	At least 4,455
Fall needed each year, on average	About 1,114
People joining each year, held at the 2024/25 level	9,956
People who must leave each year	About 11,070
People who left in 2024/25	Nearly 8,000
Extra people who must leave each year	About 3,070, a lift of 38%

Sources: the same turnaround plan and the annual report cited above. The arithmetic is ours.

About 11,000 people a year is roughly 30 people leaving long-term compensation every single day, weekends included, for four years. And a fall of any size would be new. The pool grew every year from 2021/22 to 2024/25, at between 5.5% and 13% a year, then held roughly flat in 2025/26. The 2026/27 target is the first real fall ACC has ever set for this measure.

Could private income protection fill the gap?

No, and the reason is size. Income protection is private cover that pays part of your income when illness or injury stops you working. ACC paid $2,855 million in weekly compensation in 2024/25, on the same annual report's figures. Every income protection policy in New Zealand put together brought in $539 million of premium in the year to 31 March 2026, on Financial Services Council figures (FSC).

ACC's income replacement bill is 5.3 times the whole private premium pool, before a cent of that premium pays a claim, a wage or an adviser. Private cover was never built to stand in for ACC across a country. It stands behind one household at a time.

What it means if you also hold income protection

For households with private cover running alongside ACC, the clause that decides what happens next is the offset, not the benefit amount. Most New Zealand income protection offsets ACC, meaning the insurer subtracts whatever ACC pays and tops up the rest. So when ACC stops, the question is not whether ACC got it right. It is whether the policyholder still meets their own policy's definition of disability, which is a separate test, in different words, from the one ACC applies.

For the group whose payments end on a fitness-for-work decision rather than a recovery, that is where the gap opens up, because nothing makes one test follow the other. The grounds ACC can use are set out one by one in our guide to how long ACC cover lasts. If a review is already under way, the steps and deadlines are in when ACC payments stop.

How solid is that 38%?

The 38% rests on one assumption we could not verify. We treated ACC's "nearly 8,000" clients returning to work or independence as everyone who left the pool in 2024/25. People also leave by dying, by reaching New Zealand Superannuation age, or by moving on to other entitlements. If a lot of people leave those ways, more than 8,000 left in 2024/25, and more people joined too. The percentage lift ACC needs would then be smaller than 38%, but the raw number of people leaving each year would be bigger.

We have also assumed the inflow stays flat. ACC publishes no forecast of how many people will join the pool. Its plan is aimed partly at stopping people joining, not just at moving people off. Every person it keeps out is one fewer it has to move off later. If the inflow fell by 10%, ACC would need about 10,075 people to leave each year, a lift of about 26% rather than 38%.

Two timing points matter. The pool figures for 2021/22 to 2024/25 are final, audited year-end numbers, but the 24,454 for 2025/26 is provisional, still waiting on a final valuation and an outside audit, so it may change. And the claims liability and investment fund figures come from 2024/25, a year older than the plan they were reported next to.

Finally, ACC's website blocks some automated visitors. Both the newsroom page and the plan PDF opened for us, and we quote them directly. No figure on this page is second hand from another outlet's summary.

What this means for your cover

ACC pays for accidents, not illness, and it stops at a published ceiling. Income protection is the cover that answers both. Income protection in New Zealand

Sources

Every source below was read and checked on 21 August 2026.

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