Tower has raised its profit guidance for the year to 30 September, because big event claims cost less than it had set aside.
In an NZX announcement on 6 October, Tower said it "now expects FY26 full-year underlying NPAT to be between $69m and $79m, compared with its previous guidance range of $55m to $65m". NPAT is net profit after tax. The figures are what Tower calls "preliminary, unaudited results".
Tower keeps a large event allowance of $45 million a year. The notice says "Large event claim costs of around $25m were recorded for the financial year, with the unused allowance of around $20m increasing expected underlying NPAT by $14m ($20m less tax)".
That $14 million matches the size of the lift at both ends of the range. The subtraction is ours.
In Tower's May result, Tower said the first half alone cost $18.5 million across four large events. It expected a further $5 million for the April 2026 Wellington flooding.
The October notice doesn't break the $25 million down by event.
Tower called the expected result "a return to a more typical earnings profile after the unusually favourable weather conditions and claims experience of FY25, which was an exceptionally strong year".
It also warned that reported profit "will continue to be impacted by non-underlying costs including further customer remediation programme costs incurred in the second half".
Customer numbers rose 8% in the year to 345,000, "driven primarily by growth in New Zealand home insurance policies". Gross written premium, the total premium Tower charges, grew 3%, "in line with guidance growth of low single digit".
By our sums, that means premium per customer fell, or the mix shifted towards cheaper customers. Tower doesn't give an average premium.
In May it said premium growth was "constrained by lower average premiums, driven by growth in low risk properties which attract lower pricing, and increased competition".
On pricing, Tower said "competitive pricing is supporting customer affordability and growth, while expanded risk-based pricing is strengthening portfolio quality and reducing exposure to weather-related impacts".
Tower's results date notice says it reports its full-year result on 26 November.
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